The Circulator -- October 6, 2004
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| A weekly e-newsletter from Circulation Management | |||||
| October 6, 2004 | |||||
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Industry News: Consumer Magazine Circ Decline to Last? New York Magazine Chooses a CD Trends: Internet Circ Lessons Learned International Direct Mail Strategies News Briefs Newly Available Lists
Industry News:Is Consumer Magazine Circ Decline Temporary or Permanent? By Baird Davis
As previously reported, the audited circ of consumer magazines stopped its decline in the first half of 2004. Is the industry's stalled circ level decline only temporary? Let's peek behind the numbers and see.
The industry's aggregate circulation level stabilized at 288.4 million. This represents a small reduction from the 288.8 million reported in the first half of 2003. This slight decrease would have been a 600,000 gain except for the change in ABC reporting by National Geographic.
Until the first half of this year, the industry's circ level had declined from its 312 million peak, reached in the first half of 2001, for five consecutive six-month periods.
The number of audited titles in the first half of 2004 was 609 compared to 610 in the year previous period. Twenty-three titles either ceased publication or stopped being audited, representing a combined circulation loss of 2.7 million. Twenty-two titles were new to the auditing process and their combined circ was 4.0 million. This resulted in a net circulation gain of 1.3 million.
Elle Girl (507,000) and Budget Living (459,000) were the publications with the largest circulation additions to the auditing ranks. The major circulation departures were: Travel Holiday (627,000), Honey (420,000), Heart and Soul (404,000), Savoy (329,000) and Organic Gardening (300,000).
Overall, the audit bureau title additions and deletions had a relatively small impact on the industry's aggregate circulation levels.
Many publishers continued to reduce their circulation levels, a trend that began in earnest in the first half of 2002. In the first half of this year, 110 publications (out of 609 audited titles) lowered their circ levels 5% or more. This compares to the 102 titles that reduced a similar amount in the period a year ago.
A total of 25 titles curtailed their circ levels by 50,000 or more, accounting for an aggregate decrease of 5.2 million. These included three titles that reduced levels 400,000 or more -- National Geographic (1,218,000), Reader's Digest (862,000) and Martha Stewart Living (447,000).
However, the other 561 titles (not including the new titles) increased their circulation a combined 3.2 million. There were a significant number of publishers lowering circ levels in the first half of 2004, but they were offset by an equal number that were aggressively raising circ levels.
In the first half there were 39 publishing companies (total 301 titles) with aggregate circulation levels of more than 1 million. Eight of those companies reported 10 million or more circulation. It's the actions of these eight leaders that are of the greatest significance to the industry.
Like most other publishers, their circ level decisions sent a decidedly mixed message. Time, Inc (up 4.2%) and Conde Nast (up 3.1%), of the top eight, were the only companies to show circ increases. Meredith's circ levels remained stable. But Hearst (down 1.6%), Reader's Digest (down 6.5%), G+J USA (down 2.1%), Hachette (down 4.8%) and Primedia (down 6.8%) all displayed circ level decreases of more than 250,000.
The aggregate circulation levels of the consumer magazine industry are down from their record highs. This has provided some relief for an industry that, by any objective measurement, remains over-circulated. But the sudden first-half halt of circ level reductions was an indication the industry remains ambivalent about circ level decisions.
As we've seen, the actions of the top eight circulation companies demonstrate an inclination to continue to increase circ levels in certain "hot" categories � such as women's life style and health/fitness categories.
It also appears there is a growing, but still reluctant, propensity to lower circ levels in the categories that appear to have lost some of their luster -- such as teen and the women's traditional categories. However, the tendency to increase circulation levels often overrides the inclination to cut.
New York Magazine Chooses a CD By Meghan Hamill
Kenneth T. Sheldon started his new position as circulation director at New York Magazine on September 27. In this position, Sheldon will build and oversee a circulation department for New York Magazine that will manage subscription marketing, acquisition and retention and will develop strategies for maintaining newsstand sales.
Sheldon has served in managerial positions with Time Magazine since 1999. He was most recently as financial director for the national newsweekly, responsible for managing a 4 million rate base and large circulation profits. He was also the consumer marketing director for Time Canada. Prior to January 2003, Sheldon was a marketing manager for Time. He also worked as a senior analyst for Publishers Clearing House.
"We're thrilled that Ken will bring us such depth of successful experience in the weekly magazine circulation business," said publisher Larry Burstein. "By filling this critical position with such an accomplished candidate, New York Magazine has now rounded out our new top-notch managerial staff."
Trend FeaturesInternet Circ Lessons Learned By Barbara Love
While the Internet is still a relatively small source of subs for most publishers, circulation management has profited from its newly-acquired knowledge on the unique aspects of Internet marketing.
"I think most of us have come to the conclusion that the Internet is not the be-all and save-all that we thought it would be six or seven years ago, but it does play a growing role," Peter Pedersen, executive director, publisher relations, Publishers Clearing House (PCH), said at a recent Fulfillment Management Association luncheon.
"One of the things we learned quickly is that very few people turn on the computer in the morning looking to buy a magazine. We thought that all we needed was a great site with great offers and people would come streaming to our site to buy our magazines."
It is now understood that it is really a two or three step process, Pederson explained. It starts with affiliates and co-marketers to bring traffic to your site, developing a dialogue with Web site visitors and ultimately selling your product.
And it is more often a pro-active kind of environment, where the individual comes to a site by various means and a relationship is established.
Pedersen said PCH learned by accident that a bill-me option on the Internet works better than a credit card offer, and, much to many circulators' surprise, it is getting a 50 percent pay up.
Steve Aster, executive VP, consumer marketing, Primedia Consumer Media & Magazine Group (CMMG), said "The starting point for the Internet is just simple math."
"If you look at the number of computers out there, even in segments...It used to be people thought it was the young people coming on [in greatest numbers].
"But if you talk to any of the large PC companies, they will tell you that one of the fastest growing segments is the 50-year-plus population," he said.
Aster stresses that the Internet should never have been seen as a great volume producer. It should be looked at as a channel.
"More and more people are doing transactions on the Internet every day, so for anyone to think that this is not an opportunity for circulators is ridiculous," he said.
What really excites Aster is that the Internet breaks down barriers of resistance. "In the old days if you did a lot of testing by mail, there was a price to pay if you were wrong. You had to print and mail and wait for the results.
"The Internet breaks down those barriers," he said, "because even the craziest of ideas can be tested rather efficiently, and you�ll know pretty quickly whether you've hit something or not."
Also, if the marketing is done correctly, the Internet becomes a great gateway to communicate with the customer on a much more regular basis.
"It's not this impersonal communication which takes many days in the mail," Aster said. "You can provide content to someone online simultaneously while you are trying to ask them for an order."
Aster puts the Internet as one of the top two or three objectives on his company's agenda "as far as great opportunities from a marketing point of view going forward."
But, he underscored that the Internet is not about banners and buttons. "You've got to be a marketer to make it work," he said.
International Direct Mail Strategies By Meghan Hamill
When planning an International direct mail program, there are a number of service providers you should have in place, says Jerry Messer, president/CEO, Data Services, Inc. He gave the following advice recently at FMA Day in New York.
1. List Broker: First, find a list broker with in-depth experience in recommending multinational and specific international lists, list management and mailing project management.
2. List Hygiene: Enlist the advice of a computer service bureau experienced in international list conversion, international address hygiene and international merge/purge in order to clean, correct and de-dupe the lists.
If the bureau is a member of the DMA Safe Harbor program, it's an added bonus because it means they subscribe to international privacy policies. This allows the company to process lists coming in from all over the world.
3. International Mailing: Experienced list brokers and service bureaus can usually guide you in the basic changes required to adapt your mailing package to the international marketplace.
The specific offer will dictate the amount of change required and in some cases you may be directed to an outside consultant. The size and weight of the package may affect the cost of postage. Generally speaking, if the package works in the U.S., it should work internationally.
4. Accepting Payment: The easier you make it for people to respond to and pay for your offer, the better the response will be. Therefore you must consider accepting foreign currency, credit cards and various other internationally accepted forms of payment.
5. Mailing Methods: Consider the various methods available to mail your offer and fulfill your product. Are you mailing on a large or small scale? International Surface Airlift or ISAL, a mailing product of the U.S. Postal Service, is widely used by U.S. mailers.
Large-volume mailers often use an international mail distributor and may use several mailing methods. This decision is based on cost of postage and mail delivery times to specific groups of countries. Small volume mailers use the services of an international mail consolidator to take advantage of postal discounts offered by the combined volume of mail.
The distributor and the consolidator may be the same company. Most of these companies will also assist you in the best ways to fulfill your product internationally. The experienced list broker and service bureau will direct you to international mailing service providers.
News Briefs
NEWLY AVAILABLE LISTSNAI's Vacation Timeshare Owners (248,764 names, $110/M) Consumers who spent an average of $12,500 for timeshare units in places like Florida, California and Las Vegas are named on NAI's Vacation Timeshare Owners file. The sources are county, tax assessor and deed transfer records. Selects by gender, adult/child age, income, interest, state/SCF/zip. Contact: Names and Addresses Inc. (847) 850-1012
Dataline Seniors by Lifestyle Interest (179,212, $80/M) The file contains more than 150 selectable demographic and psycho-graphic variables. It was assembled with data from the Dataline Consumer master file combined with mail order buyer, credit, warranty and other data, including overlaid enhancements. Selects by affluence indicator, age 55 to 64, age 65 or older, presence/age of children, credit card presence/type, direct response indicator, date of birth, donors by type, dwelling type, ethnicity, gender, state/SCF/zip. Contact: LDS Group Inc. (631) 928-3243
Amazon Tool Crib Blow-In (15,158,000 names, $30/M) Names of woodworkers, contractors and homebuilders are featured in this catalog program. Contact: Leon Henry Inc. (914) 285-3456
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